Medicare Drug Plan Premiums May Rise in 2027, With Costs Varying by Plan
KFF projects higher premiums and deductibles for many stand-alone drug plans in 2027. Comparing coverage during enrollment may help people understand their options.
People with stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plans could face a sharp premium increase in 2027, alongside higher deductibles and less predictable costs at the pharmacy. A KFF analysis projects that average monthly premiums for these plans will rise from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027. The figures are averages: what an individual pays depends on the plan, the medicines they use and how the plan shares drug costs.
That makes a plan’s monthly premium only one part of the comparison. Deductibles, coinsurance and coverage for a person’s particular medicines can all affect total costs. The analysis says people can compare available plans during Medicare’s enrollment period, which runs through Dec. 7. Details about that period are available from Medicare.
Premium changes vary across plans
Robert Travis Scott, who lives in Abingdon, Virginia, began comparing prices after learning that his AARP-UnitedHealthcare stand-alone plan’s monthly premium was set to increase from $39.60 in 2026 to $121.90 in 2027. He found a Humana plan priced at $19.30 a month that he said offered similar benefits. Scott estimated that switching could save him about $1,000 over the year.
His experience shows why an average increase can’t predict an individual’s bill. A person whose current plan changes substantially may find a lower-cost option, but the premium alone doesn’t show whether a plan covers their medicines on suitable terms. Reviewing the plan’s coverage and cost sharing alongside its monthly price gives a fuller picture.
“With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment,” said Juliette Cubanski, a KFF vice president and director of its Program on Medicare Policy. KFF’s analysis estimates that about 10.4 million people—76% of stand-alone plan enrollees who don’t receive low-income subsidies—will pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 if they remain in their current plan.
That estimate includes about 4.1 million people currently enrolled in plans with no monthly premium. KFF found that no zero-premium stand-alone plans will be available in 2027, so those enrollees would pay a monthly premium if they keep stand-alone coverage. KFF’s earlier figures on enrollment and costs provide a point of comparison.
Deductibles and coinsurance add to the picture
The projected premium increase isn’t the only cost change in the analysis. KFF estimates the average deductible for stand-alone plans will rise from $540 in 2026 to $643 in 2027. For Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage, it projects an average drug deductible of $489, up from $360.
Most people with drug coverage through either kind of plan are also expected to face an annual deductible in 2027. After that deductible, many may pay coinsurance—a percentage of a medicine’s cost—instead of a fixed copayment. Since a percentage can change with the medicine’s price, coinsurance may make a person’s share harder to predict. The actual amount depends on the plan’s terms and the covered drug.
Medicare Advantage plans that include drug coverage show a different premium pattern in the KFF analysis. Enrollees are projected to pay an average of $9 per month for drug coverage in 2027, an increase of less than $2. More than half of Medicare beneficiaries receive coverage through these plans, which combine health coverage with a drug benefit in many cases. KFF estimates about 31 million people get drug coverage this way, compared with nearly 25 million enrolled in stand-alone prescription drug plans.
Why estimates differ
KFF points to the early end of a temporary subsidy effort as one possible contributor to higher stand-alone premiums. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ended the three-year effort after providing subsidies in 2025 and 2026. KFF has explained how that change could affect premiums. The agency’s administrator, Mehmet Oz, described the subsidy effort as an insurance industry bailout.
The KFF estimate differs from the agency’s projection that the national average premium would rise from $35 to $36. That projection used enrollment data from September 2026. KFF said the agency didn’t explain its calculation method and suggested that its figure may account for people moving to less expensive plans. The two estimates therefore may reflect different assumptions about how people respond to changing premiums. The agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment on KFF’s findings.
What people can take from the estimates
These projections describe averages and expected changes across plans; they don’t establish what any one person will spend. Drug needs, coverage details and plan selection all matter, and the analysis doesn’t show that every enrollee will see the same increase. People weighing options can look at the premium, deductible, coinsurance and coverage for their medicines together. Anyone uncertain about how a change could affect ongoing care or out-of-pocket costs can discuss the plan details with a doctor or pharmacist.
KFF Health News produces journalism about health issues as part of KFF, an independent source of health research and journalism. More information is available from KFF.
This report first appeared on KFF Health News and is republished under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
